The object of corporate techno-lust. Changes from year to year. ---- '''Next Big Things through the years''' The years are the approximate time that the concepts first entered into the front-pages of the IT press in more than one publication. '''1962''' * CobolLanguage '''1965''' * IBM OS/360 - Birth of the "modern" IBM mainframe '''1975''' * VAX MiniComputer '''1977''' * Microcomputer enters retail commercialization (3 main players: AppleIi, Commodore PET, Tandy TRS-80 {TrashEighty}) '''1980''' * CPM * Spreadsheets - The app that propelled microcomputers from hobbyist & niche tools into a common business tool '''1982''' * IBM PC '''1983''' * Oracle * dBASE (see ExBase) '''1984''' * AppleMacintosh - GUI's introduced to the mainstream '''1985''' * ExpertSystems * CeePlusPlus '''1986''' * NovellCorporation PC networks '''1991''' * ObjectOrientedProgramming for GUIs (GraphicalUserInterface''''''s) * UseNet in academic and scientific settings * CaseTool''''''s? '''1992''' * MicrosoftWindows 3.x - First Windows version that "sticks" (that is, crashes less than 4 times a day) * VisualBasic - Easily-grokkable GUI building for a wider audience of programmers '''1994''' * Dial-up proprietary networks such as CompuServe, Prodigy, and AOL. '''1995''' * Re-engineering? - rework existing corporate applications * ThinClient''''''s * WebBrowser''''''s '''1996''' * VRML (VirtualRealityMarkupLanguage) '''1997''' * JavaLanguage (billed as the "first computer language that moved the stock market") ''Arguably late 1996'' '''1998''' * "Push" technology * Web-based everything '''1999''' * XML (ExtensibleMarkupLanguage) * OO DesignPatterns '''2000''' * (Waiting around seeing if the market is really tanking or not) '''2001''' * Peer-to-peer * Dot-com bankruptcies '''2002''' * Gutting IT department to bare minimum '''2003''' * Web services * InternationalOutsourcing - Double blow to IT-worker confidence (with dot-com recession) * AppleIpod (or MP3 players in general) '''2004''' * AspectOrientedProgramming (AOP) * Blogging * Wikis * BitTorrent and other peer-to-peer file sharing frameworks * SocialNetworking (links, not file sharing) * EnterpriseApplication '''2005''' * Wearable cell phones with AudioRecognitionDialing, gradually incorporating PDA/PIM and gaming features * Ad hoc networks (began years earlier, will explode in 2005) of both computers and non-computer consumer electronics * Wireless * Digital convergence (in consumer electronics) * I notice more chatter on DistributedComputing of late * AjaxWebApplications '''2006''' * WebTwoPointOh * RubyOnRails '''2007''' * NetworkAsComputer * REST - Representational State Transfer (http://www.ics.uci.edu/~fielding/pubs/dissertation/rest_arch_style.htm ) '''2008''' * "Mashups" - Combining web widgets and services from different sources * Parallelism for multi-core processing (ParallelNeedScenario) '''2009''' * RDBMS/SQL backlash, inspired/triggered largely by web-based data concerns - RecordBasedDatabase * CloudComputing * GestureRecognition - May have been triggered by iPhone popularity '''2010''' * MultiParadigmProgramming acceptance - OOP dethroned as THE only way (SplashOneOne, OoppExploringTheMultiparadigmShift) '''2011''' * DeadTree Death Spiral - Quickly-dying technologies wreaking social havoc and confusion. Re: libraries, post-offices, bookstores, and newspapers. Propelled by combination of internet, ipads, and e-readers. * ThreeDeePrinting '''2013''' * CryptoCurrency * HtmlFive '''2014''' * NodeJs gets a lot of attention of late, whether it's real or hype or something in-between. * Mobile-friendly sites and/or content. (It's been gradually creeping up in importance.) ---- '''Those that were too gradual to place in a year or need more research''' * PDAs PersonalDigitalAssistant (AppleNewton? PalmPilot? iPhone/Android? iPad?) - The popularity of these has been gradual but bumpy. Newton generated some mild hype, then it mellowed, then PalmPilot did the same, then it mellowed, then Blackberry, then mellow, etc. Thus, a stair-step pattern in which portable devices do more over time. As of late 2011, desktop PC sales have grown roughly stagnant at the expense of pocket and flat devices. * laptop / notebook computers * GPS GlobalPositioningSystem * UAV unmanned aerial vehicle (such as the military "Predator" UAV http://science.howstuffworks.com/predator.htm ) ** Research in unmanned land-based vehicles and robots appears to be accelerating also. Perhaps it's a general trend toward RoboWar. * quantum computing * digital cameras - ''This is rather gradual, so hard to place in a year'' * "digital cash" * cell phones - ''gradual'' * TransMeta - ''not doing very well of late'' * VoIP * Viruses/Anti-Virus * dual-core (dual processors ?) ---- ---- Guesses for the the NextBigThing in software: I think: * GenerativeProgramming * BrainsAsaCheapCommodity (the end of software careers in the "developed" world) ---- I agree, but the thing after that is an expert system driven generator. About time that domain knowledge got systematized. Then we can stop worrying about bricks and get on with buildings. -- RIH. ---- '''Video Phones'''. We'll have giant screens in our houses; we will be able to operate the camera, the image will be crystal-clear and this is where the fun starts: we'll have a new concept in our society: a virtual companionship. We'll be able to put a little camera on our forehead and our friend sitting at his computer anywhere in the world will be with us during our trip, our walking around in the house. He'll be our virtual companion. Dig this: Grand-Pa in Detroit city will be able to accompany his son and his grand-daughter to the park, the circus, the swimming pool in Florida. We'll be in front of our screen and we'll be able to walk around with someone in Venice, New-York city, Rough and Ready Texas, anywhere. Those walking around with a camera will have a virtual companion with them. Have I seen this before in real life? Yes circa 1992. The ever inventive funny guy DaveLetterman was sending a camera crew on the street to look for Swedish women. Dave was able to talk to them while remaining in his studio. I am sure this is an indication of things to come in the next ten years. The bad part? More and more people will live as hermits. See the Belgian movie "Thomas is in love"; the guy suffers from agoraphobia and hasn't gone out since 8 years. He communicates through videophone exclusively, he has his food delivered to his house, he does cyber sex. The most interesting part: he is very together, more together than those who go out... ---- Right now it seems to be all things with the word "Enterprise" in 'em. (EnterpriseApplication) ''This is not a coincidence; it's the result of a carefully coordinated marketing campaign begun by DesiLu studios in 1965.'' :-) :-) :-) --AlanFrancis Has "Visual Enterprise++.Net" come out yet? That would signal the pinnacle of the movement. ''Its sales were stolen by FooOneOhOneInSevenDaysForDummiesInaNutshellSuperBibleUnleashed.'' ---- Enterprise, schmenterprise. I'm getting really sick of "frameworks" really fast. Here it's 2006 and it seems everything I'm supposed to get excited about is a "framework". People can't even agree on what a "framework" is [DefinitionOfFramework], and so the word gets applied willy-nilly as people get more and more excited. Enough with the "frameworks", already. ---- Funny reading this, as I was using UseNet 'links' to an ftp site to download music in 1993 (any old guitar junkies remember OLGA on nevada.edu?). So I guess peer-to-peer Internet file sharing was invented then :) I got all of the .wav's of Rush's "Counterparts" album before it was released. ---- I'm seeing a lot of hype about the CellProcessor here in 2005-2006. How is it significantly different from the TMS320C80 MVP (multimedia video processor)? That MVP has been produced by TI since before 1996 (over 10 years ago). The TMS320C80 MVP includes a 32 bit RISC master processor, and 4 parallel DSP processors (64 bit instruction words, 32 bit integer units that can be used for 8 bit SIMD ops). Why isn't Rapport's "KC256" chip getting 32 times as much press as the CellProcessor? -- DavidCary ---- See also Gartner's Hype Cycle http://www.gartner.com/pages/story.php.id.8789.s.8.jsp See AspectOrientedProgramming, PeerToPeerInternetFileSystems, InformalHistoryOfProgrammingIdeas, NewToolWishList ---- CategoryHistory, CategoryIndustryTrends, CategoryWishList, CategoryFuture